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Arizona Diamondbacks
78-69
.531
Team Statistics
Texas RangersSeasonArizona Diamondbacks
Hitting
.242AVG.242
.317OBP.314
.399SLG.392
.716OPS.706
611Runs648
171HR143
Last 10 Games
Texas Rangers
5-5- L@ Seattle Mariners3-4
- L@ Seattle Mariners2-3
- W@ Seattle Mariners10-5
- Wvs Tampa Bay Rays8-6
- Lvs Tampa Bay Rays3-6
- Lvs Tampa Bay Rays6-7
- W
Prediction
Pregame forecast — the game is live. These numbers were computed before first pitch and do not reflect the current score.
Texas RangersArizona Diamondbacks
50%50%
Projected Score5.1 - 4.8Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
How strongly the model's signals agree with each other — not the odds this pick is correct.
Most signals agree
Most Influential Factors
- •Texas Rangers's offense holds the edge over the opposing probable pitcher
- •Arizona Diamondbacks has home-field advantage
Analytics
Team Momentum
Texas Rangers
5-5 last 10Streak L2Run diff +10
Arizona Diamondbacks
5-5 last 10Streak L1Run diff -11
Offensive Rating
Texas Rangers
AVG .242OPS .716
Advanced Analytics
Recent Performance
Texas Rangers
Form↓Last 52-35.2 RS/G4.8 RA/G+2 diff
Last 105-55.6 RS/G4.6 RA/G+10 diff
Arizona Diamondbacks
Form↑Last 54-13.8 RS/G3.4 RA/G+2 diff
Last 105-52.5 RS/G3.6 RA/G-11 diff
Statcast Analysis
Expected Batting
Texas Rangers
Expected0.233
Actual0.236
+0.004 vs. expected
Arizona Diamondbacks
Expected0.254
Actual0.251
-0.004 vs. expected
Expected Power
Texas Rangers
Expected0.388
Actual0.404
+0.016 vs. expected
Arizona Diamondbacks
Conditions
Ballpark & Weather
Weather
100.4°F · ClearHumidity 29.2%Wind 10.4 mph WSW
Roof
Retractable roof(Status unknown)Run multiplier 1.04x · Park factor 104
4.28
ERA
4.09
2B
vs Tampa Bay Rays
6-0
Lvs Athletics2-9Wvs Athletics8-5Wvs Athletics8-1Arizona Diamondbacks
5-5- L@ Kansas City Royals2-5
- W@ Kansas City Royals5-3
- W@ Kansas City Royals5-4
- W@ Houston Astros3-2
- W@ Houston Astros4-3
- L@ Houston Astros1-3
- Wvs Philadelphia Phillies1-0
- Lvs Philadelphia Phillies1-7
- Lvs Philadelphia Phillies1-2
- L@ San Francisco Giants2-7
•
Arizona Diamondbacks rates better defensively
Sensitivity Analysis — What Changed This Prediction
Each row is that factor's share of the win probability above, in percentage points.
Matchup advantage↓2.4 ptsTexas Rangers
Home field↑1.2 ptsArizona Diamondbacks
Defense↑0.8 ptsArizona Diamondbacks
Momentum↑0.0 ptsArizona Diamondbacks
Bullpen freshness↑0.0 ptsArizona Diamondbacks
Texas RangersArizona Diamondbacks
Expected Hits9.17.5
Expected K's6.89.6
Upset watch: Even matchup — no clear favorite
OBP .317
SLG .399
Arizona Diamondbacks
AVG .242OPS .706OBP .314SLG .392
Bullpen Fatigue
Texas Rangers
5 games in last 6 days · 12 runs allowed last 3
Arizona Diamondbacks
5 games in last 6 days · 12 runs allowed last 3
Matchup Advantage
Texas RangersArizona Diamondbacks
Advantage: Texas Rangers
Expected Runs
Texas Rangers5.1
vsArizona Diamondbacks4.8
Season runs per game, adjusted for the opposing probable pitcher's ERA.
Confidence Score
Most signals agree
Pitcher Trends
Texas Rangers
MacKenzie Gore
Last 5 starts: 4.09 ERA · 1.77 WHIP · 20% QS
ERA↓WHIP↓K↓BB↓Velo—
Arizona Diamondbacks
Merrill Kelly
Last 5 starts: 4.33 ERA · 1.37 WHIP · 40% QS
ERA↑WHIP↑K↑BB↑Velo—
Bullpen Usage
Texas Rangers
8 appearances (3d)22 appearances (7d)27 IP (7d)411 pitches (7d)
Arizona Diamondbacks
8 appearances (3d)24 appearances (7d)29.3 IP (7d)459 pitches (7d)
Offensive Trends
Texas Rangers
Last 6 games: 0.745 OPS · 0.307 OBP · 0.438 SLG
OPS↓OBP→SLG↓HR↓K↓BB↑LOB↑
Arizona Diamondbacks
Last 6 games: 0.664 OPS · 0.316 OBP · 0.348 SLG
OPS↑OBP↑SLG↓HR↓K↑BB↑LOB↓
Team Splits
Texas Rangers
Home.245 / .312 / .41046
Away.241 / .322 / .39141
Day.249 / .325 / .41656
Night.239 / .313 / .39236
vs LHP.260 / .332 / .43470
vs RHP.235 / .311 / .38632
Arizona Diamondbacks
Home.249 / .322 / .41051
Away.236 / .308 / .37725
Day.241 / .311 / .38431
Night.243 / .316 / .39841
vs LHP.273 / .339 / .43474
vs RHP.230 / .305 / .37723
Team Comparison
Texas RangersArizona Diamondbacks
Expected0.384
Actual0.402
+0.019 vs. expected
Quality of Contact
Texas Rangers
Exit Velo 89.3 mphHard Hit 40.2%Barrel 8.2%Sweet Spot 31.0%Launch Angle 14.2°Sample 9 batters
Arizona Diamondbacks
Exit Velo 88.1 mphHard Hit 35.3%Barrel 6.5%Sweet Spot 34.6%Launch Angle 15.2°Sample 9 batters
Fastball Profile
Texas Rangers
Velocity 94.6 mphSpin Rate 2198 rpmH-Break 6.5 inV-Break -15.6 inExtension 6.7 ft
Arizona Diamondbacks
Velocity 91.9 mphSpin Rate 2342 rpmH-Break -9.5 inV-Break -20.0 inExtension 6.1 ft
Pitch Mix
Texas Rangers
Fastball 59%Breaking 28%Offspeed 13%
Arizona Diamondbacks
Fastball 50%Breaking 22%Offspeed 28%
Expected vs Actual
Texas Rangers
Expected0.306
Actual0.317
+0.011 vs. expected
Arizona Diamondbacks
Expected0.387
Actual0.355
-0.032 vs. expected
Pitch Quality
Texas Rangers
Whiff 26.2%Chase 30.7%K% 24.9%BB% 9.2%Ground Ball 39.9%Fly Ball 25.9%Line Drive 27.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks
Whiff 21.6%Chase 34.8%K% 15.4%BB% 10.0%Ground Ball 41.6%Fly Ball 27.0%Line Drive 26.2%
