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Philadelphia Phillies
82-65
.558
Team Statistics
Philadelphia PhilliesSeasonAtlanta Braves
Hitting
.241AVG.246
.311OBP.309
.399SLG.408
.710OPS.717
664Runs675
173HR185
Last 10 Games
Philadelphia Phillies
5-5- Lvs Houston Astros1-2
- Wvs Houston Astros11-7
- Lvs Houston Astros5-6
- Wvs Atlanta Braves1-0
- Lvs Atlanta Braves4-5
- Wvs Atlanta Braves4-2
- L
Prediction
Pregame forecast — the game is live. These numbers were computed before first pitch and do not reflect the current score.
Philadelphia PhilliesAtlanta Braves
41%59%
Projected Score2.3 - 5.1Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
How strongly the model's signals agree with each other — not the odds this pick is correct.
Most signals agree
Most Influential Factors
- •Atlanta Braves's offense holds the edge over the opposing probable pitcher
- •Atlanta Braves has home-field advantage
Analytics
Team Momentum
Philadelphia Phillies
5-5 last 10Streak L1Run diff +7
Atlanta Braves
4-6 last 10Streak W1Run diff -7
Offensive Rating
Philadelphia Phillies
AVG .241OPS .710
Advanced Analytics
Recent Performance
Philadelphia Phillies
Form↓Last 52-34.4 RS/G4 RA/G+2 diff
Last 105-53.7 RS/G3 RA/G+7 diff
Atlanta Braves
Form→Last 52-32.2 RS/G4 RA/G-9 diff
Last 104-63.5 RS/G4.2 RA/G-7 diff
Statcast Analysis
Expected Batting
Philadelphia Phillies
Expected0.254
Actual0.248
-0.005 vs. expected
Atlanta Braves
Expected0.241
Actual0.241
+0.001 vs. expected
Expected Power
Philadelphia Phillies
Expected0.377
Actual0.374
-0.003 vs. expected
Atlanta Braves
Conditions
Ballpark & Weather
Weather
74.1°F · Mostly CloudyHumidity 93.6%Wind 4.7 mph SSW
Roof
Open air(Open)Run multiplier 1.00x · Park factor 100
3.97
ERA
3.57
C
vs Atlanta Braves
2-5
L@ Arizona Diamondbacks0-1W@ Arizona Diamondbacks7-1W@ Arizona Diamondbacks2-1Atlanta Braves
4-6- Wvs Tampa Bay Rays3-1
- Lvs Tampa Bay Rays2-7
- Lvs Tampa Bay Rays1-7
- L@ Philadelphia Phillies0-1
- W@ Philadelphia Phillies5-4
- L@ Philadelphia Phillies2-4
- W@ Philadelphia Phillies5-2
- W@ Washington Nationals9-0
- L@ Washington Nationals5-9
- Lvs San Francisco Giants3-7
•
Philadelphia Phillies carries stronger recent-form momentum
Sensitivity Analysis — What Changed This Prediction
Each row is that factor's share of the win probability above, in percentage points.
Matchup advantage↑7.8 ptsAtlanta Braves
Home field↑1.2 ptsAtlanta Braves
Momentum↓0.8 ptsPhiladelphia Phillies
Defense↑0.8 ptsAtlanta Braves
Bullpen freshness↑0.0 ptsAtlanta Braves
Philadelphia PhilliesAtlanta Braves
Expected Hits6.57.3
Expected K's11.57.4
Upset watch: 41% chance of the underdog winning
OBP .311
SLG .399
Atlanta Braves
AVG .246OPS .717OBP .309SLG .408
Bullpen Fatigue
Philadelphia Phillies
6 games in last 6 days · 15 runs allowed last 3
Atlanta Braves
6 games in last 6 days · 15 runs allowed last 3
Matchup Advantage
Philadelphia PhilliesAtlanta Braves
Advantage: Atlanta Braves
Expected Runs
Philadelphia Phillies2.3
vsAtlanta Braves5.1
Season runs per game, adjusted for the opposing probable pitcher's ERA.
Confidence Score
Most signals agree
Pitcher Trends
Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola
Last 5 starts: 2.01 ERA · 1.02 WHIP · 80% QS
ERA↑WHIP↓K↓BB↓Velo—
Atlanta Braves
Chris Sale
Home100
Away92
Day100
Night100
Last 5 starts: 2.12 ERA · 0.88 WHIP · 100% QS
ERA↑WHIP↑K↑BB↓Velo—
Bullpen Usage
Philadelphia Phillies
9 appearances (3d)18 appearances (7d)17 IP (7d)268 pitches (7d)
Atlanta Braves
7 appearances (3d)15 appearances (7d)24.3 IP (7d)343 pitches (7d)
Offensive Trends
Philadelphia Phillies
Last 7 games: 0.672 OPS · 0.272 OBP · 0.400 SLG
OPS↓OBP↓SLG↓HR↓K↓BB↓LOB↑
Atlanta Braves
Last 7 games: 0.533 OPS · 0.226 OBP · 0.307 SLG
OPS↓OBP↓SLG↓HR↓K↑BB↓LOB↑
Team Splits
Philadelphia Phillies
Home.255 / .326 / .43467
Away.228 / .296 / .36512
Day.221 / .296 / .37316
Night.251 / .319 / .41251
vs LHP.244 / .321 / .39341
vs RHP.241 / .307 / .40339
Atlanta Braves
Home.256 / .318 / .42758
Away.236 / .300 / .39028
Day.236 / .302 / .38325
Night.250 / .312 / .41951
vs LHP.238 / .300 / .39531
vs RHP.250 / .313 / .41549
Team Comparison
Philadelphia PhilliesAtlanta Braves
Expected0.394
Actual0.380
-0.013 vs. expected
Quality of Contact
Philadelphia Phillies
Exit Velo 88.5 mphHard Hit 36.7%Barrel 5.1%Sweet Spot 33.9%Launch Angle 11.2°Sample 9 batters
Atlanta Braves
Exit Velo 88.8 mphHard Hit 38.0%Barrel 7.9%Sweet Spot 32.7%Launch Angle 15.1°Sample 8 batters
Fastball Profile
Philadelphia Phillies
Velocity 91.2 mphSpin Rate 2315 rpmH-Break -12.6 inV-Break -21.8 inExtension 6.9 ft
Atlanta Braves
Velocity 96.0 mphSpin Rate 2323 rpmH-Break 15.2 inV-Break -21.2 inExtension 6.6 ft
Pitch Mix
Philadelphia Phillies
Fastball 50%Breaking 34%Offspeed 16%
Atlanta Braves
Fastball 50%Breaking 40%Offspeed 11%
Expected vs Actual
Philadelphia Phillies
Expected0.307
Actual0.345
+0.038 vs. expected
Atlanta Braves
Expected0.272
Actual0.262
-0.010 vs. expected
Pitch Quality
Philadelphia Phillies
Whiff 27.6%Chase 32.9%K% 24.4%BB% 7.8%Ground Ball 40.4%Fly Ball 27.9%Line Drive 24.8%
Atlanta Braves
Whiff 30.1%Chase 36.9%K% 30.6%BB% 4.8%Ground Ball 44.3%Fly Ball 24.0%Line Drive 25.6%
