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Kansas City Royals
66-82
.446
Team Statistics
Kansas City RoyalsSeasonBoston Red Sox
Hitting
.247AVG.248
.317OBP.322
.402SLG.404
.719OPS.726
632Runs654
154HR154
Last 10 Games
Kansas City Royals
3-7- Wvs Arizona Diamondbacks5-2
- Lvs Arizona Diamondbacks3-5
- Lvs Arizona Diamondbacks4-5
- Wvs Toronto Blue Jays6-1
- Lvs Toronto Blue Jays3-4
- Lvs Toronto Blue Jays2-9
- W
Prediction
Pregame forecast — the game has ended. Shown for reference; it does not reflect the final result.
Kansas City RoyalsBoston Red Sox
39%61%
Projected Score2.8 - 5.3Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox
How strongly the model's signals agree with each other — not the odds this pick is correct.
All signals point the same way
Most Influential Factors
- •Boston Red Sox's offense holds the edge over the opposing probable pitcher
- •Boston Red Sox carries stronger recent-form momentum
- •
Analytics
Team Momentum
Kansas City Royals
3-7 last 10Streak W1Run diff -15
Boston Red Sox
6-4 last 10Streak L2Run diff -2
Offensive Rating
Kansas City Royals
AVG .247OPS .719
Advanced Analytics
Recent Performance
Kansas City Royals
Form↑Last 52-34.2 RS/G3.4 RA/G+4 diff
Last 103-74 RS/G5.5 RA/G-15 diff
Boston Red Sox
Form→Last 53-23.6 RS/G3 RA/G+3 diff
Last 106-44.3 RS/G4.5 RA/G-2 diff
Statcast Analysis
Expected Batting
Kansas City Royals
Expected0.241
Actual0.250
+0.008 vs. expected
Boston Red Sox
Expected0.248
Actual0.241
-0.007 vs. expected
Expected Power
Kansas City Royals
Expected0.378
Actual0.406
+0.028 vs. expected
Boston Red Sox
Conditions
Ballpark & Weather
Weather
69.8°F · ClearHumidity 37.6%Wind 8.1 mph NW
Roof
Open air(Open)Run multiplier 1.01x · Park factor 103
4.63
ERA
3.62
CF
vs Miami Marlins
7-3
Lvs Miami Marlins6-9Lvs Miami Marlins3-6L@ Cleveland Guardians1-11Boston Red Sox
6-4- Lvs Los Angeles Angels4-6
- Lvs Los Angeles Angels1-6
- Wvs Los Angeles Angels5-2
- W@ Baltimore Orioles3-1
- W@ Baltimore Orioles5-0
- W@ Baltimore Orioles1-0
- W@ Baltimore Orioles6-5
- Lvs Seattle Mariners3-8
- Lvs Seattle Mariners6-9
- Wvs Seattle Mariners9-8
Boston Red Sox has home-field advantage
Sensitivity Analysis — What Changed This Prediction
Each row is that factor's share of the win probability above, in percentage points.
Matchup advantage↑7.8 ptsBoston Red Sox
Momentum↑2.4 ptsBoston Red Sox
Home field↑1.2 ptsBoston Red Sox
Defense↓0.8 ptsKansas City Royals
Bullpen freshness↑0.0 ptsBoston Red Sox
Kansas City RoyalsBoston Red Sox
Expected Hits8.611
Expected K's6.47.6
Upset watch: 39% chance of the underdog winning
OBP .317
SLG .402
Boston Red Sox
AVG .248OPS .726OBP .322SLG .404
Bullpen Fatigue
Kansas City Royals
5 games in last 6 days · 12 runs allowed last 3
Boston Red Sox
5 games in last 6 days · 14 runs allowed last 3
Matchup Advantage
Kansas City RoyalsBoston Red Sox
Advantage: Boston Red Sox
Expected Runs
Kansas City Royals2.8
vsBoston Red Sox5.3
Season runs per game, adjusted for the opposing probable pitcher's ERA.
Confidence Score
All signals point the same way
Pitcher Trends
Kansas City Royals
Seth Lugo
Last 5 starts: 7.30 ERA · 1.86 WHIP · 0% QS
ERA↓WHIP↓K↓BB↓Velo—
Boston Red Sox
Sonny Gray
Home86
Away96
Day62
Night100
Last 5 starts: 2.61 ERA · 1.23 WHIP · 60% QS
ERA↑WHIP→K↓BB↓Velo—
Bullpen Usage
Kansas City Royals
10 appearances (3d)24 appearances (7d)24 IP (7d)407 pitches (7d)
Boston Red Sox
5 appearances (3d)16 appearances (7d)17.7 IP (7d)259 pitches (7d)
Offensive Trends
Kansas City Royals
Last 6 games: 0.679 OPS · 0.300 OBP · 0.379 SLG
OPS↓OBP↑SLG↓HR↓K↓BB↑LOB↓
Boston Red Sox
Last 6 games: 0.594 OPS · 0.283 OBP · 0.312 SLG
OPS↑OBP↑SLG↑HR↑K↑BB↓LOB↑
Team Splits
Kansas City Royals
Home.262 / .332 / .43470
Away.232 / .301 / .37017
Day.252 / .319 / .41251
Night.244 / .315 / .39639
vs LHP.246 / .315 / .38734
vs RHP.247 / .317 / .40847
Boston Red Sox
Home.258 / .326 / .41757
Away.238 / .318 / .39138
Day.246 / .320 / .40648
Night.248 / .323 / .40348
vs LHP.253 / .330 / .42162
vs RHP.246 / .319 / .39843
Team Comparison
Kansas City RoyalsBoston Red Sox
Expected0.389
Actual0.388
+0.000 vs. expected
Quality of Contact
Kansas City Royals
Exit Velo 88.8 mphHard Hit 37.6%Barrel 7.1%Sweet Spot 33.0%Launch Angle 15.7°Sample 9 batters
Boston Red Sox
Exit Velo 88.1 mphHard Hit 37.9%Barrel 7.4%Sweet Spot 35.7%Launch Angle 13.7°Sample 9 batters
Fastball Profile
Kansas City Royals
Velocity 91.0 mphSpin Rate 2327 rpmH-Break -9.0 inV-Break -21.6 inExtension 5.9 ft
Boston Red Sox
Velocity 90.7 mphSpin Rate 2481 rpmH-Break -2.7 inV-Break -25.9 inExtension 6.4 ft
Pitch Mix
Kansas City Royals
Fastball 51%Breaking 40%Offspeed 9%
Boston Red Sox
Fastball 58%Breaking 37%Offspeed 6%
Expected vs Actual
Kansas City Royals
Expected0.344
Actual0.351
+0.007 vs. expected
Boston Red Sox
Expected0.297
Actual0.297
+0.000 vs. expected
Pitch Quality
Kansas City Royals
Whiff 18.4%Chase 25.1%K% 17.4%BB% 7.4%Ground Ball 41.1%Fly Ball 29.3%Line Drive 25.2%
Boston Red Sox
Whiff 23.4%Chase 33.1%K% 22.1%BB% 6.5%Ground Ball 46.9%Fly Ball 22.7%Line Drive 26.5%
