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Pittsburgh Pirates
74-74
.500
Team Statistics
Pittsburgh PiratesSeasonChicago Cubs
Hitting
.253AVG.252
.330OBP.340
.402SLG.431
.732OPS.771
711Runs792
169HR204
Last 10 Games
Pittsburgh Pirates
8-2- W@ Chicago White Sox2-0
- W@ Chicago White Sox4-2
- W@ Chicago White Sox9-3
- Wvs Los Angeles Angels1-0
- Lvs Los Angeles Angels1-6
- Wvs Los Angeles Angels1-0
Prediction
Pregame forecast — the game has ended. Shown for reference; it does not reflect the final result.
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs
43%57%
Projected Score4.5 - 6.4Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
How strongly the model's signals agree with each other — not the odds this pick is correct.
Most signals agree
Most Influential Factors
- •Chicago Cubs's offense holds the edge over the opposing probable pitcher
- •Pittsburgh Pirates carries stronger recent-form momentum
- •
Analytics
Team Momentum
Pittsburgh Pirates
8-2 last 10Streak W4Run diff +11
Chicago Cubs
4-6 last 10Streak L4Run diff +1
Offensive Rating
Pittsburgh Pirates
AVG .253OPS .732
Advanced Analytics
Recent Performance
Pittsburgh Pirates
Form→Last 54-13.4 RS/G2.2 RA/G+6 diff
Last 108-24.5 RS/G3.4 RA/G+11 diff
Chicago Cubs
Form↓Last 51-44.2 RS/G6.2 RA/G-10 diff
Last 104-65.5 RS/G5.4 RA/G+1 diff
Statcast Analysis
Expected Batting
Pittsburgh Pirates
Expected0.241
Actual0.253
+0.013 vs. expected
Chicago Cubs
Expected0.218
Actual0.237
+0.019 vs. expected
Expected Power
Pittsburgh Pirates
Expected0.374
Actual0.383
+0.009 vs. expected
Conditions
Ballpark & Weather
Weather
73.4°F · Partly CloudyHumidity 64.7%Wind 8.1 mph ESE
Roof
Open air(Open)Run multiplier 1.01x · Park factor 102
4.18
ERA
4.20
RF
W
vs San Francisco Giants
5-2
Lvs San Francisco Giants4-5Wvs San Francisco Giants13-12W@ St. Louis Cardinals5-4Chicago Cubs
4-6- L@ Milwaukee Brewers6-8
- L@ Milwaukee Brewers3-4
- L@ Milwaukee Brewers3-4
- L@ Miami Marlins3-10
- W@ Miami Marlins6-5
- W@ Miami Marlins6-1
- Wvs Milwaukee Brewers2-1
- Lvs Milwaukee Brewers5-9
- Lvs Milwaukee Brewers4-9
- Wvs Milwaukee Brewers17-3
Chicago Cubs rates better defensively
Sensitivity Analysis — What Changed This Prediction
Each row is that factor's share of the win probability above, in percentage points.
Matchup advantage↑5.8 ptsChicago Cubs
Momentum↓3.2 ptsPittsburgh Pirates
Defense↑3.2 ptsChicago Cubs
Home field↑1.2 ptsChicago Cubs
Bullpen freshness↑0.0 ptsChicago Cubs
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs
Expected Hits78.1
Expected K's6.68.7
Upset watch: 43% chance of the underdog winning
OBP .330
SLG .402
Chicago Cubs
AVG .252OPS .771OBP .340SLG .431
Bullpen Fatigue
Pittsburgh Pirates
5 games in last 6 days · 5 runs allowed last 3
Chicago Cubs
5 games in last 6 days · 16 runs allowed last 3
Matchup Advantage
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs
Advantage: Chicago Cubs
Expected Runs
Pittsburgh Pirates4.5
vsChicago Cubs6.4
Season runs per game, adjusted for the opposing probable pitcher's ERA.
Confidence Score
Most signals agree
Pitcher Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates
Wilber Dotel
Last 1 starts: 13.50 ERA · 2.00 WHIP · 0% QS
ERA→WHIP→K→BB→Velo—
Chicago Cubs
Shota Imanaga
Last 5 starts: 4.68 ERA · 1.24 WHIP · 60% QS
ERA↓WHIP↑K↓BB↑Velo—
Bullpen Usage
Pittsburgh Pirates
11 appearances (3d)19 appearances (7d)23 IP (7d)374 pitches (7d)
Chicago Cubs
9 appearances (3d)18 appearances (7d)21 IP (7d)351 pitches (7d)
Offensive Trends
Pittsburgh Pirates
Last 6 games: 0.716 OPS · 0.317 OBP · 0.399 SLG
OPS↑OBP↑SLG↑HR↑K↑BB↓LOB↓
Chicago Cubs
Last 6 games: 0.695 OPS · 0.332 OBP · 0.364 SLG
OPS↓OBP↓SLG↓HR↓K↓BB↓LOB↑
Team Splits
Pittsburgh Pirates
Home.268 / .347 / .42976
Away.239 / .314 / .37728
Day.248 / .332 / .41157
Night.257 / .329 / .39647
vs LHP.242 / .311 / .37526
vs RHP.258 / .339 / .41563
Chicago Cubs
Home.259 / .349 / .44887
Away.245 / .331 / .41559
Day.250 / .339 / .42669
Night.254 / .341 / .43576
vs LHP.264 / .350 / .45592
vs RHP.248 / .336 / .42266
Team Comparison
Pittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs
Quality of Contact
Pittsburgh Pirates
Exit Velo 87.8 mphHard Hit 36.9%Barrel 5.9%Sweet Spot 32.1%Launch Angle 11.2°Sample 9 batters
Chicago Cubs
Exit Velo 88.1 mphHard Hit 39.1%Barrel 7.2%Sweet Spot 32.1%Launch Angle 15.9°Sample 8 batters
Fastball Profile
Pittsburgh Pirates
Velocity 96.4 mphSpin Rate 2283 rpmH-Break -5.9 inV-Break -15.8 inExtension 6.6 ft
Chicago Cubs
Velocity 91.4 mphSpin Rate 2493 rpmH-Break 11.9 inV-Break -16.1 inExtension 6.1 ft
Pitch Mix
Pittsburgh Pirates
Fastball 69%Breaking 23%Offspeed 8%
Chicago Cubs
Fastball 47%Breaking 20%Offspeed 33%
Expected vs Actual
Pittsburgh Pirates
Expected0.299
Actual0.287
-0.012 vs. expected
Chicago Cubs
Expected0.302
Actual0.314
+0.012 vs. expected
Pitch Quality
Pittsburgh Pirates
Whiff 25.5%Chase 28.2%K% 24.6%BB% 10.1%Ground Ball 46.7%Fly Ball 27.8%Line Drive 21.1%
Chicago Cubs
Whiff 29.7%Chase 35.3%K% 23.9%BB% 5.5%Ground Ball 36.7%Fly Ball 33.1%Line Drive 20.9%
