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Colorado Rockies
55-92
.374
Team Statistics
Colorado RockiesSeasonDetroit Tigers
Hitting
.253AVG.237
.322OBP.314
.414SLG.396
.736OPS.710
688Runs647
162HR166
Last 10 Games
Colorado Rockies
3-7- L@ New York Yankees3-10
- L@ New York Yankees1-6
- L@ New York Yankees3-5
- Lvs St. Louis Cardinals8-10
- Wvs St. Louis Cardinals10-7
- Lvs St. Louis Cardinals6-7
- W
Prediction
Pregame forecast — the game has ended. Shown for reference; it does not reflect the final result.
Colorado RockiesDetroit Tigers
49%51%
Projected Score4.4 - 3.5Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers
How strongly the model's signals agree with each other — not the odds this pick is correct.
Most signals agree
Most Influential Factors
- •Colorado Rockies's offense holds the edge over the opposing probable pitcher
- •Detroit Tigers rates better defensively
- •
Analytics
Team Momentum
Colorado Rockies
3-7 last 10Streak L4Run diff -13
Detroit Tigers
4-6 last 10Streak W1Run diff -10
Offensive Rating
Colorado Rockies
AVG .253OPS .736
Advanced Analytics
Recent Performance
Colorado Rockies
Form↓Last 51-45 RS/G7.6 RA/G-13 diff
Last 103-74.4 RS/G5.7 RA/G-13 diff
Detroit Tigers
Form↑Last 53-24.4 RS/G2.4 RA/G+10 diff
Last 104-64.5 RS/G5.5 RA/G-10 diff
Statcast Analysis
Expected Batting
Colorado Rockies
Expected0.233
Actual0.267
+0.034 vs. expected
Detroit Tigers
Expected0.247
Actual0.244
-0.003 vs. expected
Expected Power
Colorado Rockies
Expected0.388
Actual0.473
+0.085 vs. expected
Conditions
Ballpark & Weather
Weather
66.2°F · ClearHumidity 72.8%Wind 5.7 mph SSE
Roof
Open air(Open)Run multiplier 0.98x · Park factor 97
5.51
ERA
3.65
RF
vs Baltimore Orioles
6-5
Wvs Baltimore Orioles4-2Lvs Baltimore Orioles1-2L@ Atlanta Braves2-3Detroit Tigers
4-6- Wvs Minnesota Twins7-2
- Lvs Minnesota Twins2-3
- Wvs Minnesota Twins5-4
- L@ Cleveland Guardians2-3
- W@ Cleveland Guardians6-0
- L@ Cleveland Guardians3-4
- L@ Cleveland Guardians6-7
- W@ Minnesota Twins11-6
- L@ Minnesota Twins2-15
- L@ Minnesota Twins1-11
Detroit Tigers has home-field advantage
Sensitivity Analysis — What Changed This Prediction
Each row is that factor's share of the win probability above, in percentage points.
Matchup advantage↓3.4 ptsColorado Rockies
Defense↑2.4 ptsDetroit Tigers
Home field↑1.2 ptsDetroit Tigers
Momentum↑0.8 ptsDetroit Tigers
Bullpen freshness↑0.0 ptsDetroit Tigers
Colorado RockiesDetroit Tigers
Expected Hits10.58.1
Expected K's7.914.3
Upset watch: Even matchup — no clear favorite
OBP .322
SLG .414
Detroit Tigers
AVG .237OPS .710OBP .314SLG .396
Bullpen Fatigue
Colorado Rockies
5 games in last 6 days · 21 runs allowed last 3
Detroit Tigers
5 games in last 6 days · 9 runs allowed last 3
Matchup Advantage
Colorado RockiesDetroit Tigers
Advantage: Colorado Rockies
Expected Runs
Colorado Rockies4.4
vsDetroit Tigers3.5
Season runs per game, adjusted for the opposing probable pitcher's ERA.
Confidence Score
Most signals agree
Pitcher Trends
Colorado Rockies
Mason Adams
Last 4 starts: 3.38 ERA · 1.45 WHIP · 0% QS
ERA↓WHIP→K↑BB↑Velo—
Detroit Tigers
Framber Valdez
Last 5 starts: 2.93 ERA · 1.24 WHIP · 80% QS
ERA↑WHIP↑K↑BB↑Velo—
Bullpen Usage
Colorado Rockies
7 appearances (3d)22 appearances (7d)20.7 IP (7d)396 pitches (7d)
Detroit Tigers
7 appearances (3d)24 appearances (7d)26 IP (7d)370 pitches (7d)
Offensive Trends
Colorado Rockies
Last 6 games: 0.718 OPS · 0.297 OBP · 0.421 SLG
OPS↓OBP↓SLG↓HR→K↓BB↑LOB↓
Detroit Tigers
Last 7 games: 0.663 OPS · 0.298 OBP · 0.364 SLG
OPS↓OBP↓SLG↓HR→K↓BB↑LOB↑
Team Splits
Colorado Rockies
Home.269 / .333 / .44174
Away.237 / .313 / .39035
Day.249 / .316 / .39942
Night.254 / .325 / .42259
vs LHP.251 / .314 / .38734
vs RHP.253 / .326 / .42763
Detroit Tigers
Home.234 / .312 / .39537
Away.241 / .316 / .39741
Day.236 / .315 / .39237
Night.238 / .314 / .39840
vs LHP.233 / .316 / .37428
vs RHP.239 / .313 / .40543
Team Comparison
Colorado RockiesDetroit Tigers
Quality of Contact
Colorado Rockies
Exit Velo 88.0 mphHard Hit 37.2%Barrel 8.5%Sweet Spot 35.3%Launch Angle 16.6°Sample 9 batters
Detroit Tigers
Exit Velo 87.6 mphHard Hit 36.6%Barrel 6.3%Sweet Spot 37.1%Launch Angle 13.1°Sample 9 batters
Fastball Profile
Colorado Rockies
Velocity 92.4 mphSpin Rate 2319 rpmH-Break -8.6 inV-Break -23.5 inExtension 6.7 ft
Detroit Tigers
Velocity 93.9 mphSpin Rate 2171 rpmH-Break 14.5 inV-Break -24.6 inExtension 5.8 ft
Pitch Mix
Colorado Rockies
Fastball 66%Breaking 29%Offspeed 6%
Detroit Tigers
Fastball 48%Breaking 33%Offspeed 19%
Expected vs Actual
Colorado Rockies
Expected0.369
Actual0.410
+0.041 vs. expected
Detroit Tigers
Expected0.324
Actual0.319
-0.005 vs. expected
Pitch Quality
Colorado Rockies
Whiff 23.9%Chase 27.7%K% 28.8%BB% 10.2%Ground Ball 36.1%Fly Ball 33.3%Line Drive 27.8%
Detroit Tigers
Whiff 19.6%Chase 31.1%K% 17.3%BB% 8.4%Ground Ball 55.3%Fly Ball 18.9%Line Drive 21.7%
