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Los Angeles Dodgers
90-57
.612
Team Statistics
Los Angeles DodgersSeasonMiami Marlins
Hitting
.257AVG.249
.337OBP.327
.422SLG.401
.759OPS.728
734Runs656
181HR151
Last 10 Games
Los Angeles Dodgers
8-2- Wvs Cincinnati Reds14-1
- Wvs Cincinnati Reds3-2
- Wvs Cincinnati Reds6-3
- Wvs Washington Nationals7-5
- Wvs Washington Nationals6-5
- Wvs Washington Nationals5-3
Prediction
Pregame forecast — the game has ended. Shown for reference; it does not reflect the final result.
Los Angeles DodgersMiami Marlins
63%37%
Projected Score4.9 - 2Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins
How strongly the model's signals agree with each other — not the odds this pick is correct.
All signals point the same way
Most Influential Factors
- •Los Angeles Dodgers's offense holds the edge over the opposing probable pitcher
- •Los Angeles Dodgers carries stronger recent-form momentum
Analytics
Team Momentum
Los Angeles Dodgers
8-2 last 10Streak W7Run diff +21
Miami Marlins
3-7 last 10Streak L3Run diff -8
Offensive Rating
Los Angeles Dodgers
AVG .257OPS .759
Advanced Analytics
Recent Performance
Los Angeles Dodgers
Form↑Last 55-07.2 RS/G3.2 RA/G+20 diff
Last 108-26.4 RS/G4.3 RA/G+21 diff
Miami Marlins
Form↓Last 51-47.6 RS/G8 RA/G-2 diff
Last 103-76 RS/G6.8 RA/G-8 diff
Statcast Analysis
Expected Batting
Los Angeles Dodgers
Expected0.255
Actual0.250
-0.006 vs. expected
Miami Marlins
Expected0.228
Actual0.238
+0.010 vs. expected
Expected Power
Los Angeles Dodgers
Expected0.413
Actual0.413
+0.000 vs. expected
Miami Marlins
Conditions
Ballpark & Weather
Weather
84.2°F · Partly CloudyHumidity 74.5%Wind 4.6 mph ESE
Roof
Retractable roof(Status unknown)Run multiplier 0.99x · Park factor 94
3.65
ERA
4.11
2B
W
vs St. Louis Cardinals
3-2
Lvs St. Louis Cardinals6-8Lvs St. Louis Cardinals8-13W@ Detroit Tigers6-1Miami Marlins
3-7- Lvs New York Mets14-15
- Lvs New York Mets5-7
- Lvs New York Mets4-9
- Wvs Chicago Cubs10-3
- Lvs Chicago Cubs5-6
- Lvs Chicago Cubs1-6
- L@ Kansas City Royals3-7
- W@ Kansas City Royals9-6
- W@ Kansas City Royals6-3
- L@ Washington Nationals3-6
•
Los Angeles Dodgers rates better defensively
Sensitivity Analysis — What Changed This Prediction
Each row is that factor's share of the win probability above, in percentage points.
Matchup advantage↓7.2 ptsLos Angeles Dodgers
Momentum↓4.0 ptsLos Angeles Dodgers
Defense↓2.8 ptsLos Angeles Dodgers
Home field↑1.2 ptsMiami Marlins
Bullpen freshness↑0.0 ptsMiami Marlins
Los Angeles DodgersMiami Marlins
Expected Hits10.15.6
Expected K's7.111.3
Upset watch: 37% chance of the underdog winning
OBP .337
SLG .422
Miami Marlins
AVG .249OPS .728OBP .327SLG .401
Bullpen Fatigue
Los Angeles Dodgers
5 games in last 6 days · 6 runs allowed last 3
Miami Marlins
5 games in last 6 days · 31 runs allowed last 3
Matchup Advantage
Los Angeles DodgersMiami Marlins
Advantage: Los Angeles Dodgers
Expected Runs
Los Angeles Dodgers4.9
vsMiami Marlins2.0
Season runs per game, adjusted for the opposing probable pitcher's ERA.
Confidence Score
All signals point the same way
Pitcher Trends
Los Angeles Dodgers
Blake Snell
Home100
Away100
Day100
Night100
Last 5 starts: 0.94 ERA · 1.01 WHIP · 60% QS
ERA↓WHIP↓K↑BB↑Velo—
Miami Marlins
Ryan Gusto
Last 5 starts: 2.92 ERA · 1.58 WHIP · 20% QS
ERA↓WHIP↓K↑BB↓Velo—
Bullpen Usage
Los Angeles Dodgers
4 appearances (3d)20 appearances (7d)19 IP (7d)295 pitches (7d)
Miami Marlins
10 appearances (3d)24 appearances (7d)28 IP (7d)537 pitches (7d)
Offensive Trends
Los Angeles Dodgers
Last 6 games: 0.796 OPS · 0.341 OBP · 0.455 SLG
OPS↑OBP↑SLG↑HR↑K↓BB↑LOB↓
Miami Marlins
Last 6 games: 0.781 OPS · 0.338 OBP · 0.443 SLG
OPS↑OBP↑SLG↑HR↓K↓BB↓LOB→
Team Splits
Los Angeles Dodgers
Home.245 / .325 / .41254
Away.268 / .348 / .43278
Day.255 / .346 / .40260
Night.257 / .334 / .42868
vs LHP.250 / .329 / .41960
vs RHP.260 / .341 / .42369
Miami Marlins
Home.253 / .334 / .40153
Away.246 / .320 / .40145
Day.241 / .330 / .38843
Night.255 / .325 / .40952
vs LHP.234 / .314 / .37728
vs RHP.255 / .332 / .41057
Team Comparison
Los Angeles DodgersMiami Marlins
Expected0.379
Actual0.410
+0.031 vs. expected
Quality of Contact
Los Angeles Dodgers
Exit Velo 89.1 mphHard Hit 39.8%Barrel 8.8%Sweet Spot 34.6%Launch Angle 16.1°Sample 8 batters
Miami Marlins
Exit Velo 88.7 mphHard Hit 39.2%Barrel 8.5%Sweet Spot 32.3%Launch Angle 14.1°Sample 9 batters
Fastball Profile
Los Angeles Dodgers
Velocity 96.0 mphSpin Rate 2496 rpmH-Break 5.4 inV-Break -11.3 inExtension 6.7 ft
Miami Marlins
Velocity 93.0 mphSpin Rate 2348 rpmH-Break -4.9 inV-Break -19.1 inExtension 6.5 ft
Pitch Mix
Los Angeles Dodgers
Fastball 50%Breaking 34%Offspeed 16%
Miami Marlins
Fastball 54%Breaking 32%Offspeed 14%
Expected vs Actual
Los Angeles Dodgers
Expected0.226
Actual0.237
+0.011 vs. expected
Miami Marlins
Expected0.332
Actual0.334
+0.002 vs. expected
Pitch Quality
Los Angeles Dodgers
Whiff 36.0%Chase 41.1%K% 32.6%BB% 10.6%Ground Ball 47.3%Fly Ball 20.3%Line Drive 17.6%
Miami Marlins
Whiff 20.8%Chase 31.0%K% 19.3%BB% 6.8%Ground Ball 42.5%Fly Ball 22.7%Line Drive 28.3%
