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Milwaukee Brewers
92-56
.622
Team Statistics
Cincinnati RedsSeasonMilwaukee Brewers
Hitting
.229AVG.259
.307OBP.341
.396SLG.404
.703OPS.745
611Runs762
196HR141
Last 10 Games
Cincinnati Reds
5-5- L@ Los Angeles Dodgers1-14
- L@ Los Angeles Dodgers2-3
- L@ Los Angeles Dodgers3-6
- Wvs Milwaukee Brewers12-8
- Wvs Milwaukee Brewers5-3
- Lvs Milwaukee Brewers7-10
- W
Prediction
Pregame forecast — the game has ended. Shown for reference; it does not reflect the final result.
Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers
43%57%
Projected Score4.4 - 5.9Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
How strongly the model's signals agree with each other — not the odds this pick is correct.
All signals point the same way
Most Influential Factors
- •Milwaukee Brewers's offense holds the edge over the opposing probable pitcher
- •Milwaukee Brewers rates better defensively
- •
Analytics
Team Momentum
Cincinnati Reds
5-5 last 10Streak L3Run diff -12
Milwaukee Brewers
6-4 last 10Streak W3Run diff -5
Offensive Rating
Cincinnati Reds
AVG .229OPS .703
Advanced Analytics
Recent Performance
Cincinnati Reds
Form↓Last 52-34.6 RS/G6.8 RA/G-11 diff
Last 105-54.8 RS/G6 RA/G-12 diff
Milwaukee Brewers
Form→Last 53-25.4 RS/G5.8 RA/G-2 diff
Last 106-45.9 RS/G6.4 RA/G-5 diff
Statcast Analysis
Expected Batting
Cincinnati Reds
Expected0.212
Actual0.192
-0.020 vs. expected
Milwaukee Brewers
Expected0.247
Actual0.248
+0.001 vs. expected
Expected Power
Cincinnati Reds
Expected0.337
Actual0.310
-0.026 vs. expected
Milwaukee Brewers
Conditions
Ballpark & Weather
Weather
68°F · ClearHumidity 77.8%Wind 8.1 mph SSE
Roof
Retractable roof(Status unknown)Run multiplier 1.00x · Park factor 100
4.84
ERA
3.53
2B
vs San Diego Padres
7-3
Wvs San Diego Padres4-3Lvs San Diego Padres0-5W@ Chicago Cubs7-5Milwaukee Brewers
6-4- Wvs Chicago Cubs8-6
- Wvs Chicago Cubs4-3
- Wvs Chicago Cubs4-3
- L@ Cincinnati Reds8-12
- L@ Cincinnati Reds3-5
- W@ Cincinnati Reds10-7
- L@ Chicago Cubs1-2
- W@ Chicago Cubs9-5
- W@ Chicago Cubs9-4
- L@ Chicago Cubs3-17
Milwaukee Brewers has home-field advantage
Sensitivity Analysis — What Changed This Prediction
Each row is that factor's share of the win probability above, in percentage points.
Matchup advantage↑3.6 ptsMilwaukee Brewers
Defense↑1.2 ptsMilwaukee Brewers
Home field↑1.2 ptsMilwaukee Brewers
Momentum↑0.8 ptsMilwaukee Brewers
Bullpen freshness↑0.0 ptsMilwaukee Brewers
Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers
Expected Hits8.29.4
Expected K's11.28.3
Upset watch: 43% chance of the underdog winning
OBP .307
SLG .396
Milwaukee Brewers
AVG .259OPS .745OBP .341SLG .404
Bullpen Fatigue
Cincinnati Reds
5 games in last 6 days · 23 runs allowed last 3
Milwaukee Brewers
5 games in last 6 days · 12 runs allowed last 3
Matchup Advantage
Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers
Advantage: Milwaukee Brewers
Expected Runs
Cincinnati Reds4.4
vsMilwaukee Brewers5.9
Season runs per game, adjusted for the opposing probable pitcher's ERA.
Confidence Score
All signals point the same way
Pitcher Trends
Cincinnati Reds
Andrew Abbott
Last 5 starts: 9.28 ERA · 1.73 WHIP · 20% QS
ERA↓WHIP↓K↓BB↑Velo—
Milwaukee Brewers
Dustin May
Last 5 starts: 7.16 ERA · 1.59 WHIP · 20% QS
ERA↑WHIP↑K↑BB↓Velo—
Bullpen Usage
Cincinnati Reds
8 appearances (3d)25 appearances (7d)27 IP (7d)503 pitches (7d)
Milwaukee Brewers
8 appearances (3d)24 appearances (7d)25.7 IP (7d)498 pitches (7d)
Offensive Trends
Cincinnati Reds
Last 6 games: 0.772 OPS · 0.332 OBP · 0.441 SLG
OPS↓OBP↓SLG↓HR↓K↓BB↓LOB↑
Milwaukee Brewers
Last 6 games: 0.778 OPS · 0.356 OBP · 0.422 SLG
OPS↓OBP↓SLG↑HR↑K→BB↓LOB↑
Team Splits
Cincinnati Reds
Home.224 / .315 / .39841
Away.233 / .300 / .39430
Day.243 / .321 / .42961
Night.220 / .298 / .37418
vs LHP.247 / .332 / .41861
vs RHP.223 / .299 / .38927
Milwaukee Brewers
Home.268 / .349 / .42776
Away.250 / .333 / .38141
Day.249 / .337 / .39752
Night.264 / .343 / .40862
vs LHP.247 / .329 / .38139
vs RHP.264 / .346 / .41467
Team Comparison
Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers
Expected0.390
Actual0.375
-0.014 vs. expected
Quality of Contact
Cincinnati Reds
Exit Velo 87.0 mphHard Hit 31.8%Barrel 7.5%Sweet Spot 29.5%Launch Angle 18.4°Sample 9 batters
Milwaukee Brewers
Exit Velo 89.5 mphHard Hit 40.7%Barrel 7.8%Sweet Spot 32.4%Launch Angle 9.3°Sample 9 batters
Fastball Profile
Cincinnati Reds
Velocity 92.2 mphSpin Rate 2358 rpmH-Break 6.0 inV-Break -16.2 inExtension 6.5 ft
Milwaukee Brewers
Velocity 95.6 mphSpin Rate 2387 rpmH-Break -8.1 inV-Break -19.4 inExtension 6.6 ft
Pitch Mix
Cincinnati Reds
Fastball 48%Breaking 33%Offspeed 19%
Milwaukee Brewers
Fastball 68%Breaking 26%Offspeed 7%
Expected vs Actual
Cincinnati Reds
Expected0.338
Actual0.327
-0.011 vs. expected
Milwaukee Brewers
Expected0.319
Actual0.317
-0.002 vs. expected
Pitch Quality
Cincinnati Reds
Whiff 22.4%Chase 29.2%K% 18.1%BB% 10.5%Ground Ball 41.1%Fly Ball 26.5%Line Drive 23.5%
Milwaukee Brewers
Whiff 22.8%Chase 30.4%K% 22.6%BB% 8.0%Ground Ball 42.5%Fly Ball 24.3%Line Drive 25.9%
