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Cleveland Guardians
75-73
.507
Team Statistics
Cleveland GuardiansSeasonMinnesota Twins
Hitting
.237AVG.245
.314OBP.319
.373SLG.405
.687OPS.724
603Runs677
139HR172
Last 10 Games
Cleveland Guardians
5-5- L@ Baltimore Orioles5-9
- W@ Baltimore Orioles9-5
- L@ Baltimore Orioles4-6
- Wvs Detroit Tigers3-2
- Lvs Detroit Tigers0-6
- Wvs Detroit Tigers4-3
- W
Prediction
Pregame forecast — the game has ended. Shown for reference; it does not reflect the final result.
Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins
50%50%
Projected Score3.7 - 2.8Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins
How strongly the model's signals agree with each other — not the odds this pick is correct.
Most signals agree
Most Influential Factors
- •Cleveland Guardians's offense holds the edge over the opposing probable pitcher
- •Minnesota Twins has home-field advantage
- •
Analytics
Team Momentum
Cleveland Guardians
5-5 last 10Streak L1Run diff -14
Minnesota Twins
5-5 last 10Streak L1Run diff +7
Offensive Rating
Cleveland Guardians
AVG .237OPS .687
Advanced Analytics
Recent Performance
Cleveland Guardians
Form↓Last 52-34.2 RS/G5.6 RA/G-7 diff
Last 105-54.1 RS/G5.5 RA/G-14 diff
Minnesota Twins
Form↓Last 52-33.2 RS/G5.6 RA/G-12 diff
Last 105-55.4 RS/G4.7 RA/G+7 diff
Statcast Analysis
Expected Batting
Cleveland Guardians
Expected0.246
Actual0.240
-0.006 vs. expected
Minnesota Twins
Expected0.239
Actual0.243
+0.004 vs. expected
Expected Power
Cleveland Guardians
Expected0.363
Actual0.366
+0.003 vs. expected
Minnesota Twins
Conditions
Ballpark & Weather
Weather
77°F · Mostly ClearHumidity 53.8%Wind 11.5 mph S
Roof
Open air(Open)Run multiplier 1.00x · Park factor 100
3.79
ERA
4.67
2B
vs Detroit Tigers
7-6
Lvs Toronto Blue Jays3-6Lvs Toronto Blue Jays0-11Wvs Toronto Blue Jays6-1Minnesota Twins
5-5- L@ Detroit Tigers2-7
- W@ Detroit Tigers3-2
- L@ Detroit Tigers4-5
- L@ Chicago White Sox1-10
- W@ Chicago White Sox6-4
- L@ Chicago White Sox1-4
- Lvs Detroit Tigers6-11
- Wvs Detroit Tigers15-2
- Wvs Detroit Tigers11-1
- Wvs Chicago White Sox5-1
Minnesota Twins rates better defensively
Sensitivity Analysis — What Changed This Prediction
Each row is that factor's share of the win probability above, in percentage points.
Matchup advantage↓2.2 ptsCleveland Guardians
Home field↑1.2 ptsMinnesota Twins
Defense↑0.8 ptsMinnesota Twins
Momentum↑0.0 ptsMinnesota Twins
Bullpen freshness↑0.0 ptsMinnesota Twins
Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins
Expected Hits7.27.6
Expected K's8.58.3
Upset watch: Even matchup — no clear favorite
OBP .314
SLG .373
Minnesota Twins
AVG .245OPS .724OBP .319SLG .405
Bullpen Fatigue
Cleveland Guardians
5 games in last 6 days · 20 runs allowed last 3
Minnesota Twins
5 games in last 6 days · 14 runs allowed last 3
Matchup Advantage
Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins
Advantage: Cleveland Guardians
Expected Runs
Cleveland Guardians3.7
vsMinnesota Twins2.8
Season runs per game, adjusted for the opposing probable pitcher's ERA.
Confidence Score
Most signals agree
Pitcher Trends
Cleveland Guardians
Parker Messick
Home90
Away100
Day91
Night100
Last 5 starts: 2.10 ERA · 1.03 WHIP · 80% QS
ERA↓WHIP↓K↑BB↓Velo—
Minnesota Twins
Taj Bradley
Last 5 starts: 3.03 ERA · 1.04 WHIP · 40% QS
ERA↑WHIP↑K↓BB↓Velo—
Bullpen Usage
Cleveland Guardians
7 appearances (3d)22 appearances (7d)33.7 IP (7d)505 pitches (7d)
Minnesota Twins
8 appearances (3d)20 appearances (7d)24.3 IP (7d)428 pitches (7d)
Offensive Trends
Cleveland Guardians
Last 7 games: 0.698 OPS · 0.290 OBP · 0.408 SLG
OPS↑OBP↑SLG↑HR↑K↓BB↑LOB↓
Minnesota Twins
Last 6 games: 0.618 OPS · 0.266 OBP · 0.353 SLG
OPS↑OBP↑SLG↑HR↑K↑BB↑LOB↑
Team Splits
Cleveland Guardians
Home.245 / .323 / .37633
Away.228 / .305 / .36919
Day.241 / .314 / .36823
Night.234 / .314 / .37527
vs LHP.227 / .314 / .34812
vs RHP.241 / .314 / .38332
Minnesota Twins
Home.252 / .329 / .40653
Away.237 / .309 / .40541
Day.240 / .310 / .38732
Night.248 / .324 / .41857
vs LHP.235 / .318 / .36222
vs RHP.249 / .319 / .42457
Team Comparison
Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins
Expected0.391
Actual0.414
+0.023 vs. expected
Quality of Contact
Cleveland Guardians
Exit Velo 87.9 mphHard Hit 34.8%Barrel 4.8%Sweet Spot 33.4%Launch Angle 13.6°Sample 9 batters
Minnesota Twins
Exit Velo 88.5 mphHard Hit 37.7%Barrel 7.6%Sweet Spot 34.0%Launch Angle 16.1°Sample 9 batters
Fastball Profile
Cleveland Guardians
Velocity 93.6 mphSpin Rate 2145 rpmH-Break 6.6 inV-Break -16.9 inExtension 6.6 ft
Minnesota Twins
Velocity 94.6 mphSpin Rate 2272 rpmH-Break -2.2 inV-Break -17.3 inExtension 6.4 ft
Pitch Mix
Cleveland Guardians
Fastball 62%Breaking 15%Offspeed 23%
Minnesota Twins
Fastball 71%Breaking 9%Offspeed 20%
Expected vs Actual
Cleveland Guardians
Expected0.271
Actual0.269
-0.002 vs. expected
Minnesota Twins
Expected0.306
Actual0.305
-0.001 vs. expected
Pitch Quality
Cleveland Guardians
Whiff 26.3%Chase 31.4%K% 26.1%BB% 6.8%Ground Ball 44.9%Fly Ball 21.4%Line Drive 22.6%
Minnesota Twins
Whiff 26.9%Chase 28.6%K% 27.3%BB% 10.1%Ground Ball 34.6%Fly Ball 30.3%Line Drive 27.0%
