Skip to contentTeam Records
New York Yankees
85-62
.578
Team Statistics
New York MetsSeasonNew York Yankees
Hitting
.238AVG.235
.309OBP.313
.394SLG.410
.703OPS.723
631Runs673
182HR201
Last 10 Games
New York Mets
7-3- W@ Miami Marlins15-14
- W@ Miami Marlins7-5
- W@ Miami Marlins9-4
- Wvs San Francisco Giants4-2
- Lvs San Francisco Giants5-9
- Wvs San Francisco Giants10-6
Prediction
Pregame forecast — the game has ended. Shown for reference; it does not reflect the final result.
New York MetsNew York Yankees
46%54%
Projected Score3 - 3.6New York Mets @ New York Yankees
How strongly the model's signals agree with each other — not the odds this pick is correct.
Most signals agree
Most Influential Factors
- •New York Yankees's offense holds the edge over the opposing probable pitcher
- •New York Yankees has home-field advantage
Sensitivity Analysis — What Changed This Prediction
Analytics
Team Momentum
New York Mets
7-3 last 10Streak W4Run diff +10
New York Yankees
7-3 last 10Streak W3Run diff +29
Offensive Rating
New York Mets
AVG .238OPS .703OBP .309
Advanced Analytics
Recent Performance
New York Mets
Form↑Last 54-18 RS/G6.8 RA/G+6 diff
Last 107-36.8 RS/G5.8 RA/G+10 diff
New York Yankees
Form↑Last 54-15.8 RS/G2.4 RA/G+17 diff
Last 107-36.1 RS/G3.2 RA/G+29 diff
Statcast Analysis
Expected Batting
New York Mets
Expected0.247
Actual0.237
-0.010 vs. expected
New York Yankees
Expected0.242
Actual0.239
-0.003 vs. expected
Expected Power
New York Mets
Expected0.403
Actual0.383
-0.021 vs. expected
Conditions
Ballpark & Weather
Weather
71.1°FHumidity 49.3%Wind 0 mph N
Roof
Open air(Open)Run multiplier 1.01x · Park factor 101
4.21
ERA
3.20
CF
W
@ Tampa Bay Rays
10-4
L@ Tampa Bay Rays2-6W@ Tampa Bay Rays3-2Lvs Houston Astros3-6New York Yankees
7-3- Wvs Colorado Rockies10-3
- Wvs Colorado Rockies6-1
- Wvs Colorado Rockies5-3
- L@ San Diego Padres3-4
- W@ San Diego Padres5-1
- L@ San Diego Padres2-3
- W@ Los Angeles Angels6-3
- W@ Los Angeles Angels7-3
- L@ Los Angeles Angels1-10
- Wvs Boston Red Sox16-1
Each row is that factor's share of the win probability above, in percentage points.
Matchup advantage↑2.2 ptsNew York Yankees
Home field↑1.2 ptsNew York Yankees
Defense↑0.4 ptsNew York Yankees
Momentum↑0.0 ptsNew York Yankees
Bullpen freshness↑0.0 ptsNew York Yankees
New York MetsNew York Yankees
Expected Hits6.98
Expected K's810.3
Upset watch: 46% chance of the underdog winning
SLG .394
New York Yankees
AVG .235OPS .723OBP .313SLG .410
Bullpen Fatigue
New York Mets
5 games in last 6 days · 23 runs allowed last 3
New York Yankees
5 games in last 6 days · 7 runs allowed last 3
Matchup Advantage
New York MetsNew York Yankees
Advantage: New York Yankees
Expected Runs
New York Mets3.0
vsNew York Yankees3.6
Season runs per game, adjusted for the opposing probable pitcher's ERA.
Confidence Score
Most signals agree
Pitcher Trends
New York Mets
Nolan McLean
Last 5 starts: 2.40 ERA · 1.37 WHIP · 80% QS
ERA↓WHIP↓K↑BB↑Velo—
New York Yankees
Carlos Rodón
Last 5 starts: 2.25 ERA · 0.88 WHIP · 20% QS
ERA→WHIP↑K↑BB↑Velo—
Bullpen Usage
New York Mets
10 appearances (3d)25 appearances (7d)24.3 IP (7d)426 pitches (7d)
New York Yankees
11 appearances (3d)19 appearances (7d)19.3 IP (7d)313 pitches (7d)
Offensive Trends
New York Mets
Last 6 games: 0.878 OPS · 0.364 OBP · 0.514 SLG
OPS↑OBP↑SLG↑HR↓K↓BB↑LOB↓
New York Yankees
Last 6 games: 0.736 OPS · 0.333 OBP · 0.403 SLG
OPS↑OBP↑SLG↑HR↑K↑BB↓LOB↑
Team Splits
New York Mets
Home.231 / .306 / .38227
Away.244 / .312 / .40543
Day.245 / .322 / .39543
Night.233 / .299 / .39329
vs LHP.231 / .301 / .38324
vs RHP.241 / .312 / .39839
New York Yankees
Home.241 / .325 / .43969
Away.230 / .302 / .38325
Day.225 / .312 / .39839
Night.241 / .313 / .41649
vs LHP.247 / .318 / .41853
vs RHP.229 / .310 / .40642
Team Comparison
New York MetsNew York Yankees
Quality of Contact
New York Mets
Exit Velo 88.8 mphHard Hit 40.9%Barrel 8.1%Sweet Spot 32.5%Launch Angle 15.7°Sample 9 batters
New York Yankees
Exit Velo 90.0 mphHard Hit 43.9%Barrel 10.5%Sweet Spot 35.7%Launch Angle 14.6°Sample 9 batters
Fastball Profile
New York Mets
Velocity 94.9 mphSpin Rate 2310 rpmH-Break -12.8 inV-Break -22.4 inExtension 6.5 ft
New York Yankees
Velocity 94.1 mphSpin Rate 2345 rpmH-Break 9.8 inV-Break -14.9 inExtension 6.1 ft
Pitch Mix
New York Mets
Fastball 64%Breaking 30%Offspeed 6%
New York Yankees
Fastball 59%Breaking 27%Offspeed 15%
Expected vs Actual
New York Mets
Expected0.295
Actual0.284
-0.011 vs. expected
New York Yankees
Expected0.305
Actual0.273
-0.032 vs. expected
Pitch Quality
New York Mets
Whiff 24.1%Chase 27.7%K% 26.7%BB% 9.7%Ground Ball 45.9%Fly Ball 23.3%Line Drive 24.3%
New York Yankees
Whiff 28.3%Chase 28.1%K% 26.2%BB% 12.7%Ground Ball 36.6%Fly Ball 29.2%Line Drive 26.7%
