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San Diego Padres
78-68
.534
San Francisco Giants
62-85
.422
Team Statistics
San Diego PadresSeasonSan Francisco Giants
Hitting
.238AVG.248
.315OBP.309
.388SLG.407
.703OPS.716
622Runs618
161HR166
Last 10 Games
San Diego Padres
6-4- Wvs Washington Nationals9-2
- Wvs Washington Nationals5-4
- Wvs Washington Nationals3-2
- Wvs New York Yankees4-3
- Lvs New York Yankees1-5
- Wvs New York Yankees3-2
Prediction
Pregame forecast — the game is live. These numbers were computed before first pitch and do not reflect the current score.
San Diego PadresSan Francisco Giants
52%48%
Projected Score3.7 - 3.3San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
How strongly the model's signals agree with each other — not the odds this pick is correct.
Most signals agree
Most Influential Factors
- •San Diego Padres rates better defensively
- •San Francisco Giants has home-field advantage
Sensitivity Analysis — What Changed This Prediction
Analytics
Team Momentum
San Diego Padres
6-4 last 10Streak W4Run diff +6
San Francisco Giants
6-4 last 10Streak W3Run diff +2
Offensive Rating
San Diego Padres
AVG .238OPS .703
Advanced Analytics
Recent Performance
San Diego Padres
Form↑Last 54-14.4 RS/G3.2 RA/G+6 diff
Last 106-44 RS/G3.4 RA/G+6 diff
San Francisco Giants
Form↑Last 54-15 RS/G4 RA/G+5 diff
Last 106-45.7 RS/G5.5 RA/G+2 diff
Statcast Analysis
Expected Batting
San Diego Padres
Expected0.252
Actual0.248
-0.003 vs. expected
San Francisco Giants
Expected0.229
Actual0.233
+0.004 vs. expected
Expected Power
San Diego Padres
Expected0.387
Actual0.376
-0.011 vs. expected
San Francisco Giants
Conditions
Ballpark & Weather
Weather
61.4°FHumidity 81.1%Wind —
Roof
Open air(Open)Run multiplier 0.98x · Park factor 95
3.88
ERA
4.36
RF
L
@ Cincinnati Reds
3-7
L@ Cincinnati Reds3-4W@ Cincinnati Reds5-0L@ Tampa Bay Rays4-5San Francisco Giants
6-4- Wvs St. Louis Cardinals7-6
- Wvs St. Louis Cardinals2-1
- Wvs St. Louis Cardinals5-4
- L@ New York Mets2-4
- W@ New York Mets9-5
- L@ New York Mets6-10
- L@ Pittsburgh Pirates2-5
- W@ Pittsburgh Pirates5-4
- L@ Pittsburgh Pirates12-13
- W@ Atlanta Braves7-3
Each row is that factor's share of the win probability above, in percentage points.
Defense↓2.4 ptsSan Diego Padres
Home field↑1.2 ptsSan Francisco Giants
Matchup advantage↓0.4 ptsSan Diego Padres
Momentum↑0.0 ptsSan Francisco Giants
Bullpen freshness↑0.0 ptsSan Francisco Giants
San Diego PadresSan Francisco Giants
Expected Hits8.28.1
Expected K's5.97.7
Upset watch: Even matchup — no clear favorite
OBP .315
SLG .388
San Francisco Giants
AVG .248OPS .716OBP .309SLG .407
Bullpen Fatigue
San Diego Padres
5 games in last 6 days · 8 runs allowed last 3
San Francisco Giants
5 games in last 6 days · 11 runs allowed last 3
Matchup Advantage
San Diego PadresSan Francisco Giants
Even matchup
Expected Runs
San Diego Padres3.7
vsSan Francisco Giants3.3
Season runs per game, adjusted for the opposing probable pitcher's ERA.
Confidence Score
Most signals agree
Pitcher Trends
San Diego Padres
Robbie Ray
Home100
Away48
Day87
Night76
Last 5 starts: 4.15 ERA · 1.48 WHIP · 40% QS
ERA↓WHIP↓K↓BB↓Velo—
San Francisco Giants
Anthony Molina
Home100
Away93
Day100
Night87
Last 3 starts: 3.75 ERA · 1.00 WHIP · 0% QS
ERA↑WHIP↑K↓BB↓Velo—
Bullpen Usage
San Diego Padres
9 appearances (3d)24 appearances (7d)28.7 IP (7d)369 pitches (7d)
San Francisco Giants
6 appearances (3d)18 appearances (7d)24 IP (7d)380 pitches (7d)
Offensive Trends
San Diego Padres
Last 6 games: 0.736 OPS · 0.319 OBP · 0.417 SLG
OPS↑OBP↑SLG↑HR↓K↑BB↑LOB↓
San Francisco Giants
Last 6 games: 0.763 OPS · 0.317 OBP · 0.446 SLG
OPS↓OBP↑SLG↓HR↓K↑BB↑LOB↓
Team Splits
San Diego Padres
Home.234 / .315 / .37126
Away.242 / .315 / .40444
Day.243 / .324 / .41957
Night.234 / .309 / .36821
vs LHP.243 / .311 / .38028
vs RHP.236 / .316 / .39037
San Francisco Giants
Home.244 / .312 / .39437
Away.251 / .306 / .41947
Day.246 / .310 / .40944
Night.249 / .308 / .40641
vs LHP.236 / .292 / .38219
vs RHP.253 / .315 / .41751
Team Comparison
San Diego PadresSan Francisco Giants
Expected0.374
Actual0.390
+0.016 vs. expected
Quality of Contact
San Diego Padres
Exit Velo 88.4 mphHard Hit 36.4%Barrel 6.7%Sweet Spot 35.1%Launch Angle 11.8°Sample 9 batters
San Francisco Giants
Exit Velo 88.3 mphHard Hit 37.5%Barrel 7.9%Sweet Spot 32.0%Launch Angle 13.9°Sample 9 batters
Fastball Profile
San Diego Padres
Velocity 93.0 mphSpin Rate 2300 rpmH-Break 10.8 inV-Break -15.9 inExtension 6.3 ft
San Francisco Giants
Velocity 96.1 mphSpin Rate 2209 rpmH-Break -6.1 inV-Break -12.0 inExtension 6.4 ft
Pitch Mix
San Diego Padres
Fastball 46%Breaking 35%Offspeed 19%
San Francisco Giants
Fastball 50%Breaking 28%Offspeed 23%
Expected vs Actual
San Diego Padres
Expected0.335
Actual0.314
-0.021 vs. expected
San Francisco Giants
Expected0.302
Actual0.249
-0.053 vs. expected
Pitch Quality
San Diego Padres
Whiff 25.1%Chase 28.3%K% 19.9%BB% 12.1%Ground Ball 37.0%Fly Ball 34.2%Line Drive 22.2%
San Francisco Giants
Whiff 23.8%Chase 34.4%K% 20.3%BB% 4.1%Ground Ball 46.4%Fly Ball 30.4%Line Drive 21.4%
