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Chicago White Sox
75-71
.514
St. Louis Cardinals
72-75
.490
Team Statistics
Chicago White SoxSeasonSt. Louis Cardinals
Hitting
.236AVG.243
.318OBP.317
.406SLG.385
.724OPS.702
687Runs671
192HR156
Last 10 Games
Chicago White Sox
3-7- Lvs Pittsburgh Pirates0-2
- Lvs Pittsburgh Pirates2-4
- Lvs Pittsburgh Pirates3-9
- Wvs Minnesota Twins10-1
- Lvs Minnesota Twins4-6
- Wvs Minnesota Twins4-1
- L
Prediction
Pregame forecast — the game is live. These numbers were computed before first pitch and do not reflect the current score.
Chicago White SoxSt. Louis Cardinals
52%48%
Projected Score6.1 - 4.9Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals
How strongly the model's signals agree with each other — not the odds this pick is correct.
Most signals agree
Most Influential Factors
- •Chicago White Sox's offense holds the edge over the opposing probable pitcher
- •St. Louis Cardinals has home-field advantage
Analytics
Team Momentum
Chicago White Sox
3-7 last 10Streak L3Run diff -5
St. Louis Cardinals
4-6 last 10Streak L3Run diff +2
Offensive Rating
Chicago White Sox
AVG .236OPS .724
Advanced Analytics
Recent Performance
Chicago White Sox
Form↓Last 51-43.8 RS/G4.4 RA/G-3 diff
Last 103-73.3 RS/G3.8 RA/G-5 diff
St. Louis Cardinals
Form↓Last 51-45.6 RS/G6.4 RA/G-4 diff
Last 104-66.2 RS/G6 RA/G+2 diff
Statcast Analysis
Expected Batting
Chicago White Sox
Expected0.238
Actual0.235
-0.003 vs. expected
St. Louis Cardinals
Expected0.252
Actual0.258
+0.005 vs. expected
Expected Power
Chicago White Sox
Expected0.382
Actual0.389
+0.007 vs. expected
St. Louis Cardinals
Conditions
Ballpark & Weather
Weather
73.4°F · ClearHumidity 94.1%Wind 3.4 mph WNW
Roof
Open air(Open)Run multiplier 1.00x · Park factor 98
4.14
ERA
4.31
C
@ Houston Astros
2-6
L@ Houston Astros0-2W@ Houston Astros5-1L@ Houston Astros3-6St. Louis Cardinals
4-6- L@ San Francisco Giants6-7
- L@ San Francisco Giants1-2
- L@ San Francisco Giants4-5
- W@ Colorado Rockies10-8
- L@ Colorado Rockies7-10
- W@ Colorado Rockies7-6
- L@ Los Angeles Dodgers2-3
- W@ Los Angeles Dodgers8-6
- W@ Los Angeles Dodgers13-8
- Lvs Pittsburgh Pirates4-5
•
St. Louis Cardinals carries stronger recent-form momentum
Sensitivity Analysis — What Changed This Prediction
Each row is that factor's share of the win probability above, in percentage points.
Matchup advantage↓4.4 ptsChicago White Sox
Home field↑1.2 ptsSt. Louis Cardinals
Momentum↑0.8 ptsSt. Louis Cardinals
Defense↑0.8 ptsSt. Louis Cardinals
Bullpen freshness↑0.0 ptsSt. Louis Cardinals
Chicago White SoxSt. Louis Cardinals
Expected Hits88.5
Expected K's11.66.2
Upset watch: Even matchup — no clear favorite
OBP .318
SLG .406
St. Louis Cardinals
AVG .243OPS .702OBP .317SLG .385
Bullpen Fatigue
Chicago White Sox
5 games in last 6 days · 15 runs allowed last 3
St. Louis Cardinals
5 games in last 6 days · 14 runs allowed last 3
Matchup Advantage
Chicago White SoxSt. Louis Cardinals
Advantage: Chicago White Sox
Expected Runs
Chicago White Sox6.1
vsSt. Louis Cardinals4.9
Season runs per game, adjusted for the opposing probable pitcher's ERA.
Confidence Score
Most signals agree
Pitcher Trends
Chicago White Sox
Anthony Kay
Last 5 starts: 7.23 ERA · 1.48 WHIP · 20% QS
ERA↓WHIP↓K↓BB↑Velo—
St. Louis Cardinals
Matthew Liberatore
Last 5 starts: 7.77 ERA · 1.52 WHIP · 20% QS
ERA↑WHIP↓K↓BB↓Velo—
Bullpen Usage
Chicago White Sox
9 appearances (3d)20 appearances (7d)34.7 IP (7d)530 pitches (7d)
St. Louis Cardinals
5 appearances (3d)21 appearances (7d)22.7 IP (7d)407 pitches (7d)
Offensive Trends
Chicago White Sox
Last 6 games: 0.684 OPS · 0.277 OBP · 0.407 SLG
OPS↓OBP↓SLG↓HR↓K↓BB↓LOB↑
St. Louis Cardinals
Last 6 games: 0.731 OPS · 0.336 OBP · 0.394 SLG
OPS↓OBP↓SLG↓HR↓K↑BB↑LOB↓
Team Splits
Chicago White Sox
Home.243 / .323 / .42057
Away.228 / .312 / .38934
Day.219 / .302 / .36917
Night.246 / .327 / .42864
vs LHP.236 / .319 / .41351
vs RHP.235 / .317 / .40244
St. Louis Cardinals
Home.235 / .305 / .36114
Away.250 / .326 / .40651
Day.244 / .319 / .38737
Night.242 / .315 / .38433
vs LHP.242 / .321 / .39442
vs RHP.244 / .316 / .38132
Team Comparison
Chicago White SoxSt. Louis Cardinals
Expected0.417
Actual0.427
+0.010 vs. expected
Quality of Contact
Chicago White Sox
Exit Velo 89.1 mphHard Hit 39.7%Barrel 7.5%Sweet Spot 32.4%Launch Angle 13.9°Sample 9 batters
St. Louis Cardinals
Exit Velo 90.1 mphHard Hit 43.3%Barrel 7.9%Sweet Spot 33.2%Launch Angle 13.7°Sample 9 batters
Fastball Profile
Chicago White Sox
Velocity 94.4 mphSpin Rate 2333 rpmH-Break 7.4 inV-Break -21.2 inExtension 5.8 ft
St. Louis Cardinals
Velocity 94.0 mphSpin Rate 2150 rpmH-Break 6.9 inV-Break -15.4 inExtension 6.3 ft
Pitch Mix
Chicago White Sox
Fastball 57%Breaking 29%Offspeed 14%
St. Louis Cardinals
Fastball 42%Breaking 44%Offspeed 14%
Expected vs Actual
Chicago White Sox
Expected0.340
Actual0.340
+0.000 vs. expected
St. Louis Cardinals
Expected0.337
Actual0.353
+0.016 vs. expected
Pitch Quality
Chicago White Sox
Whiff 23.2%Chase 32.8%K% 18.3%BB% 7.9%Ground Ball 44.8%Fly Ball 22.5%Line Drive 24.5%
St. Louis Cardinals
Whiff 24.1%Chase 28.7%K% 23.7%BB% 8.1%Ground Ball 37.6%Fly Ball 29.5%Line Drive 25.9%
