Skip to contentTeam Statistics
Houston AstrosSeasonTampa Bay Rays
Hitting
.241AVG.260
.315OBP.328
.409SLG.404
.724OPS.732
663Runs665
193HR157
Last 10 Games
Houston Astros
6-4- W@ Philadelphia Phillies2-1
- L@ Philadelphia Phillies7-11
- W@ Philadelphia Phillies6-5
- Lvs Arizona Diamondbacks2-3
- Lvs Arizona Diamondbacks3-4
- Wvs Arizona Diamondbacks3-1
Prediction
Pregame forecast — the game has ended. Shown for reference; it does not reflect the final result.
Houston AstrosTampa Bay Rays
49%51%
Projected Score3 - 3.6Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
How strongly the model's signals agree with each other — not the odds this pick is correct.
Most signals agree
Most Influential Factors
- •Tampa Bay Rays's offense holds the edge over the opposing probable pitcher
- •Houston Astros rates better defensively
- •
Analytics
Team Momentum
Houston Astros
6-4 last 10Streak W1Run diff +3
Tampa Bay Rays
5-5 last 10Streak L1Run diff +2
Offensive Rating
Houston Astros
AVG .241OPS .724OBP .315
Advanced Analytics
Recent Performance
Houston Astros
Form↓Last 52-34 RS/G4.8 RA/G-4 diff
Last 106-43.8 RS/G3.5 RA/G+3 diff
Tampa Bay Rays
Form↑Last 53-25.4 RS/G3.4 RA/G+10 diff
Last 105-54.6 RS/G4.4 RA/G+2 diff
Statcast Analysis
Expected Batting
Houston Astros
Expected0.236
Actual0.245
+0.009 vs. expected
Tampa Bay Rays
Expected0.248
Actual0.259
+0.011 vs. expected
Expected Power
Houston Astros
Expected0.372
Actual0.403
+0.032 vs. expected
Conditions
Ballpark & Weather
Weather
80.6°F · ClearHumidity 78.8%Wind 10.4 mph SE
Roof
Fixed dome(Closed)Run multiplier 0.98x · Park factor 96
4.51
ERA
3.79
LF
W
vs Chicago White Sox
6-2
Wvs Chicago White Sox2-0Lvs Chicago White Sox1-5Wvs Chicago White Sox6-3Tampa Bay Rays
5-5- L@ Atlanta Braves1-3
- W@ Atlanta Braves7-2
- W@ Atlanta Braves7-1
- L@ Texas Rangers6-8
- W@ Texas Rangers6-3
- W@ Texas Rangers7-6
- L@ Texas Rangers0-6
- Lvs New York Mets4-10
- Wvs New York Mets6-2
- Lvs New York Mets2-3
Tampa Bay Rays has home-field advantage
Sensitivity Analysis — What Changed This Prediction
Each row is that factor's share of the win probability above, in percentage points.
Matchup advantage↑2.4 ptsTampa Bay Rays
Defense↓1.6 ptsHouston Astros
Home field↑1.2 ptsTampa Bay Rays
Momentum↓0.8 ptsHouston Astros
Bullpen freshness↑0.0 ptsTampa Bay Rays
Houston AstrosTampa Bay Rays
Expected Hits7.97.9
Expected K's10.411.2
Upset watch: Even matchup — no clear favorite
SLG .409
Tampa Bay Rays
AVG .260OPS .732OBP .328SLG .404
Bullpen Fatigue
Houston Astros
5 games in last 6 days · 17 runs allowed last 3
Tampa Bay Rays
5 games in last 6 days · 6 runs allowed last 3
Matchup Advantage
Houston AstrosTampa Bay Rays
Advantage: Tampa Bay Rays
Expected Runs
Houston Astros3.0
vsTampa Bay Rays3.6
Season runs per game, adjusted for the opposing probable pitcher's ERA.
Confidence Score
Most signals agree
Pitcher Trends
Houston Astros
Miguel Ullola
Last 1 starts: 0.00 ERA · 0.00 WHIP · 0% QS
ERA→WHIP→K→BB→Velo—
Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Rasmussen
Last 5 starts: 2.90 ERA · 0.94 WHIP · 80% QS
ERA↑WHIP↑K↑BB↑Velo—
Bullpen Usage
Houston Astros
11 appearances (3d)22 appearances (7d)20.7 IP (7d)370 pitches (7d)
Tampa Bay Rays
10 appearances (3d)23 appearances (7d)19.3 IP (7d)331 pitches (7d)
Offensive Trends
Houston Astros
Last 6 games: 0.736 OPS · 0.295 OBP · 0.440 SLG
OPS↑OBP↑SLG↑HR↑K↑BB↑LOB↑
Tampa Bay Rays
Last 6 games: 0.795 OPS · 0.332 OBP · 0.463 SLG
OPS↓OBP↓SLG↓HR↑K↓BB↑LOB↓
Team Splits
Houston Astros
Home.239 / .313 / .40744
Away.244 / .317 / .41149
Day.239 / .310 / .39637
Night.242 / .317 / .41652
vs LHP.239 / .311 / .40241
vs RHP.242 / .316 / .41148
Tampa Bay Rays
Home.265 / .330 / .42463
Away.255 / .327 / .38741
Day.252 / .321 / .38134
Night.265 / .333 / .42063
vs LHP.250 / .314 / .37024
vs RHP.264 / .335 / .42064
Team Comparison
Houston AstrosTampa Bay Rays
Quality of Contact
Houston Astros
Exit Velo 87.5 mphHard Hit 36.0%Barrel 7.0%Sweet Spot 31.3%Launch Angle 13.9°Sample 9 batters
Tampa Bay Rays
Exit Velo 87.7 mphHard Hit 33.9%Barrel 6.2%Sweet Spot 30.5%Launch Angle 13.6°Sample 9 batters
Fastball Profile
Houston Astros
Velocity 95.2 mphSpin Rate 2555 rpmH-Break -4.8 inV-Break -10.8 inExtension 6.9 ft
Tampa Bay Rays
Velocity 93.6 mphSpin Rate 2526 rpmH-Break -4.7 inV-Break -20.1 inExtension 6.5 ft
Pitch Mix
Houston Astros
Fastball 74%Breaking 26%Offspeed 1%
Tampa Bay Rays
Fastball 80%Breaking 6%Offspeed 13%
Expected vs Actual
Houston Astros
Expected0.299
Actual0.290
-0.009 vs. expected
Tampa Bay Rays
Expected0.274
Actual0.245
-0.029 vs. expected
Pitch Quality
Houston Astros
Whiff 26.9%Chase 31.5%K% 37.0%BB% 3.7%Ground Ball 12.5%Fly Ball 56.3%Line Drive 31.3%
Tampa Bay Rays
Whiff 24.9%Chase 33.7%K% 26.1%BB% 4.5%Ground Ball 43.9%Fly Ball 24.0%Line Drive 24.8%
