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Baltimore Orioles
71-76
.483
Toronto Blue Jays
73-74
.497
Team Statistics
Baltimore OriolesSeasonToronto Blue Jays
Hitting
.235AVG.248
.316OBP.309
.395SLG.384
.711OPS.693
668Runs593
178HR142
Last 10 Games
Baltimore Orioles
3-7- Wvs Cleveland Guardians9-5
- Lvs Cleveland Guardians5-9
- Wvs Cleveland Guardians6-4
- Lvs Boston Red Sox1-3
- Lvs Boston Red Sox0-5
- Lvs Boston Red Sox0-1
- L
Prediction
Pregame forecast — the game is live. These numbers were computed before first pitch and do not reflect the current score.
Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays
49%51%
Projected Score6.9 - 4.7Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
How strongly the model's signals agree with each other — not the odds this pick is correct.
Most signals agree
Most Influential Factors
- •Baltimore Orioles's offense holds the edge over the opposing probable pitcher
- •Toronto Blue Jays carries stronger recent-form momentum
Analytics
Team Momentum
Baltimore Orioles
3-7 last 10Streak W1Run diff -9
Toronto Blue Jays
6-4 last 10Streak L1Run diff +18
Offensive Rating
Baltimore Orioles
AVG .235OPS .711
Advanced Analytics
Recent Performance
Baltimore Orioles
Form↑Last 52-34.2 RS/G5.2 RA/G-5 diff
Last 103-73.5 RS/G4.4 RA/G-9 diff
Toronto Blue Jays
Form↓Last 52-32.8 RS/G3.8 RA/G-5 diff
Last 106-44.8 RS/G3 RA/G+18 diff
Statcast Analysis
Expected Batting
Baltimore Orioles
Expected0.238
Actual0.234
-0.004 vs. expected
Toronto Blue Jays
Expected0.245
Actual0.262
+0.016 vs. expected
Expected Power
Baltimore Orioles
Expected0.423
Actual0.410
-0.013 vs. expected
Toronto Blue Jays
Conditions
Ballpark & Weather
Weather
Weather unavailable
Roof
Retractable roofRun multiplier 1.00x · Park factor 101
4.15
ERA
3.93
RF
vs Boston Red Sox
5-6
L@ Colorado Rockies5-6L@ Colorado Rockies2-4W@ Colorado Rockies2-1Toronto Blue Jays
6-4- L@ Athletics0-2
- W@ Athletics4-2
- L@ Athletics5-6
- L@ Kansas City Royals1-6
- W@ Kansas City Royals4-3
- W@ Kansas City Royals9-2
- W@ Cleveland Guardians6-3
- W@ Cleveland Guardians11-0
- L@ Cleveland Guardians1-6
- Wvs Seattle Mariners7-0
•
Toronto Blue Jays has home-field advantage
Sensitivity Analysis — What Changed This Prediction
Each row is that factor's share of the win probability above, in percentage points.
Matchup advantage↓3.0 ptsBaltimore Orioles
Momentum↑2.4 ptsToronto Blue Jays
Home field↑1.2 ptsToronto Blue Jays
Defense↑0.4 ptsToronto Blue Jays
Bullpen freshness↑0.0 ptsToronto Blue Jays
Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays
Expected Hits9.69.4
Expected K's7.83.6
Upset watch: Even matchup — no clear favorite
OBP .316
SLG .395
Toronto Blue Jays
AVG .248OPS .693OBP .309SLG .384
Bullpen Fatigue
Baltimore Orioles
5 games in last 6 days · 18 runs allowed last 3
Toronto Blue Jays
5 games in last 6 days · 10 runs allowed last 3
Matchup Advantage
Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays
Advantage: Baltimore Orioles
Expected Runs
Baltimore Orioles6.9
vsToronto Blue Jays4.7
Season runs per game, adjusted for the opposing probable pitcher's ERA.
Confidence Score
Most signals agree
Pitcher Trends
Baltimore Orioles
Chris Bassitt
Last 5 starts: 4.40 ERA · 1.53 WHIP · 20% QS
ERA↓WHIP↓K↓BB↓Velo—
Toronto Blue Jays
Max Scherzer
Last 5 starts: 6.07 ERA · 1.24 WHIP · 20% QS
ERA↑WHIP↑K↑BB↑Velo—
Bullpen Usage
Baltimore Orioles
8 appearances (3d)20 appearances (7d)21.3 IP (7d)364 pitches (7d)
Toronto Blue Jays
6 appearances (3d)22 appearances (7d)26.3 IP (7d)396 pitches (7d)
Offensive Trends
Baltimore Orioles
Last 6 games: 0.621 OPS · 0.286 OBP · 0.335 SLG
OPS↑OBP↑SLG↑HR↑K↑BB↑LOB↓
Toronto Blue Jays
Last 6 games: 0.753 OPS · 0.332 OBP · 0.421 SLG
OPS↓OBP↓SLG↑HR↑K↓BB→LOB↑
Team Splits
Baltimore Orioles
Home.233 / .318 / .39541
Away.236 / .314 / .39337
Day.235 / .328 / .38943
Night.234 / .308 / .39736
vs LHP.239 / .314 / .40443
vs RHP.232 / .317 / .38937
Toronto Blue Jays
Home.245 / .315 / .37729
Away.250 / .303 / .38828
Day.247 / .307 / .38127
Night.249 / .310 / .38430
vs LHP.229 / .299 / .3579
vs RHP.256 / .313 / .39337
Team Comparison
Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays
Expected0.355
Actual0.389
+0.033 vs. expected
Quality of Contact
Baltimore Orioles
Exit Velo 89.8 mphHard Hit 41.9%Barrel 10.2%Sweet Spot 34.3%Launch Angle 15.0°Sample 9 batters
Toronto Blue Jays
Exit Velo 87.6 mphHard Hit 35.1%Barrel 4.9%Sweet Spot 32.3%Launch Angle 12.2°Sample 8 batters
Fastball Profile
Baltimore Orioles
Velocity 91.5 mphSpin Rate 2131 rpmH-Break -11.2 inV-Break -25.0 inExtension 6.2 ft
Toronto Blue Jays
Velocity 92.6 mphSpin Rate 2360 rpmH-Break -7.6 inV-Break -16.6 inExtension 6.3 ft
Pitch Mix
Baltimore Orioles
Fastball 64%Breaking 31%Offspeed 5%
Toronto Blue Jays
Fastball 53%Breaking 32%Offspeed 16%
Expected vs Actual
Baltimore Orioles
Expected0.343
Actual0.354
+0.011 vs. expected
Toronto Blue Jays
Expected0.316
Actual0.333
+0.017 vs. expected
Pitch Quality
Baltimore Orioles
Whiff 21.6%Chase 25.5%K% 15.7%BB% 8.5%Ground Ball 46.7%Fly Ball 23.5%Line Drive 23.5%
Toronto Blue Jays
Whiff 19.9%Chase 32.5%K% 17.6%BB% 9.9%Ground Ball 34.9%Fly Ball 32.8%Line Drive 20.0%
