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Los Angeles Angels
56-91
.381
Washington Nationals
68-81
.456
Team Statistics
Los Angeles AngelsSeasonWashington Nationals
Hitting
.235AVG.247
.309OBP.323
.372SLG.426
.681OPS.749
594Runs760
142HR198
Last 10 Games
Los Angeles Angels
4-6- W@ Boston Red Sox6-4
- W@ Boston Red Sox6-1
- L@ Boston Red Sox2-5
- L@ Pittsburgh Pirates0-1
- W@ Pittsburgh Pirates6-1
- L@ Pittsburgh Pirates0-1
- L
Prediction
Pregame forecast — the game has ended. Shown for reference; it does not reflect the final result.
Los Angeles AngelsWashington Nationals
42%58%
Projected Score3 - 5.8Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals
How strongly the model's signals agree with each other — not the odds this pick is correct.
Most signals agree
Most Influential Factors
- •Washington Nationals's offense holds the edge over the opposing probable pitcher
- •Los Angeles Angels carries stronger recent-form momentum
Analytics
Team Momentum
Los Angeles Angels
4-6 last 10Streak W2Run diff +6
Washington Nationals
2-8 last 10Streak L7Run diff -20
Offensive Rating
Los Angeles Angels
AVG .235OPS .681
Advanced Analytics
Recent Performance
Los Angeles Angels
Form↑Last 53-24 RS/G2.4 RA/G+8 diff
Last 104-63.8 RS/G3.2 RA/G+6 diff
Washington Nationals
Form↓Last 50-53.6 RS/G6 RA/G-12 diff
Last 102-83.8 RS/G5.8 RA/G-20 diff
Statcast Analysis
Expected Batting
Los Angeles Angels
Expected0.215
Actual0.203
-0.012 vs. expected
Washington Nationals
Expected0.248
Actual0.254
+0.006 vs. expected
Expected Power
Los Angeles Angels
Expected0.353
Actual0.328
-0.025 vs. expected
Washington Nationals
Conditions
Ballpark & Weather
Weather
73.4°F · ClearHumidity 73.5%Wind 0 mph N
Roof
Open air(Open)Run multiplier 1.00x · Park factor 99
4.20
ERA
4.74
3B
vs New York Yankees
3-6
Lvs New York Yankees3-7Wvs New York Yankees10-1Lvs Philadelphia Phillies2-5Washington Nationals
2-8- L@ San Diego Padres2-9
- L@ San Diego Padres4-5
- L@ San Diego Padres2-3
- L@ Los Angeles Dodgers5-7
- L@ Los Angeles Dodgers5-6
- L@ Los Angeles Dodgers3-5
- Lvs Atlanta Braves0-9
- Wvs Atlanta Braves9-5
- Wvs Miami Marlins6-3
- Lvs Miami Marlins2-6
•
Los Angeles Angels rates better defensively
Sensitivity Analysis — What Changed This Prediction
Each row is that factor's share of the win probability above, in percentage points.
Matchup advantage↑9.2 ptsWashington Nationals
Momentum↓1.6 ptsLos Angeles Angels
Defense↓1.2 ptsLos Angeles Angels
Home field↑1.2 ptsWashington Nationals
Bullpen freshness↑0.0 ptsWashington Nationals
Los Angeles AngelsWashington Nationals
Expected Hits7.17.6
Expected K's12.410.4
Upset watch: 42% chance of the underdog winning
OBP .309
SLG .372
Washington Nationals
AVG .247OPS .749OBP .323SLG .426
Bullpen Fatigue
Los Angeles Angels
5 games in last 6 days · 10 runs allowed last 3
Washington Nationals
5 games in last 6 days · 17 runs allowed last 3
Matchup Advantage
Los Angeles AngelsWashington Nationals
Advantage: Washington Nationals
Expected Runs
Los Angeles Angels3.0
vsWashington Nationals5.8
Season runs per game, adjusted for the opposing probable pitcher's ERA.
Confidence Score
Most signals agree
Pitcher Trends
Los Angeles Angels
Yusei Kikuchi
Last 5 starts: 3.00 ERA · 1.38 WHIP · 40% QS
ERA↑WHIP↑K↑BB↓Velo—
Washington Nationals
Cade Cavalli
Last 5 starts: 1.93 ERA · 0.79 WHIP · 80% QS
ERA↓WHIP↑K↓BB↓Velo—
Bullpen Usage
Los Angeles Angels
8 appearances (3d)16 appearances (7d)15 IP (7d)269 pitches (7d)
Washington Nationals
8 appearances (3d)17 appearances (7d)21 IP (7d)423 pitches (7d)
Offensive Trends
Los Angeles Angels
Last 6 games: 0.723 OPS · 0.310 OBP · 0.413 SLG
OPS↑OBP↑SLG↑HR↑K↓BB↑LOB↓
Washington Nationals
Last 6 games: 0.658 OPS · 0.272 OBP · 0.386 SLG
OPS↓OBP↓SLG↓HR↑K↑BB↓LOB↑
Team Splits
Los Angeles Angels
Home.221 / .297 / .3300
Away.248 / .320 / .41251
Day.227 / .317 / .35719
Night.238 / .305 / .37824
vs LHP.238 / .311 / .38431
vs RHP.233 / .308 / .36719
Washington Nationals
Home.254 / .331 / .44274
Away.239 / .314 / .41147
Day.235 / .310 / .39536
Night.255 / .331 / .44978
vs LHP.262 / .337 / .44277
vs RHP.240 / .317 / .42054
Team Comparison
Los Angeles AngelsWashington Nationals
Expected0.439
Actual0.459
+0.020 vs. expected
Quality of Contact
Los Angeles Angels
Exit Velo 89.4 mphHard Hit 43.8%Barrel 7.9%Sweet Spot 30.2%Launch Angle 15.1°Sample 9 batters
Washington Nationals
Exit Velo 89.9 mphHard Hit 44.1%Barrel 11.5%Sweet Spot 37.5%Launch Angle 14.5°Sample 9 batters
Fastball Profile
Los Angeles Angels
Velocity 94.7 mphSpin Rate 2263 rpmH-Break 5.0 inV-Break -16.2 inExtension 6.8 ft
Washington Nationals
Velocity 96.3 mphSpin Rate 2262 rpmH-Break -7.4 inV-Break -17.4 inExtension 6.3 ft
Pitch Mix
Los Angeles Angels
Fastball 47%Breaking 34%Offspeed 18%
Washington Nationals
Fastball 52%Breaking 41%Offspeed 8%
Expected vs Actual
Los Angeles Angels
Expected0.346
Actual0.353
+0.007 vs. expected
Washington Nationals
Expected0.298
Actual0.296
-0.002 vs. expected
Pitch Quality
Los Angeles Angels
Whiff 26.5%Chase 27.3%K% 22.7%BB% 8.8%Ground Ball 39.7%Fly Ball 23.3%Line Drive 28.1%
Washington Nationals
Whiff 27.0%Chase 31.6%K% 27.9%BB% 6.9%Ground Ball 50.7%Fly Ball 24.2%Line Drive 21.3%
